• It’s all about the value not the outcomes

    by  • June 16, 2016 • Horse Racing

    Let’s consider a hypothesis – in a tennis final between two players you deem to have an equal chance, you have a punt on one of the players because s/he is 5/4 against. Let’s assume you lose your bet.

    Now tell me – were you right or wrong to have taken the bet?

    If you’re thinking “wrong because you lost the money” you perhaps need to think again.

    All forms of sports have uncertain outcomes no matter how certain the outcome may appear to be before the contest starts. So with our example, if your analysis is right and the players were broadly equal, then the match could have gone either way. But the key point is that you were on at 5/4 against in an even contest. The fact that the outcome went against you is neither here nor there, the point is that your analysis was sound. You can’t control the outcomes.

    Consider the same point with horse racing. If you think, in a handicap race, for example, Australian horse racing betting tips at Tom Waterhouse – horse X has as good a chance as any other and the horse is 10/1 in a ten-horse field, then you should take the bet because the true odds should be 9/1. Again – you’ll probably lose, but if you continue in this vein and your analysis is correct – you will come out steadily ahead and that’s all any of us can hope to achieve.

    But the key point to remember is that you can’t control the results. You can, however, control your analysis of likely outcomes and weigh the probabilities accordingly – which is the whole point. If you’re continuing to lose money steadily over time on any kind of sport betting then you should either desist straight away or change the way you’re analysing the potential outcomes weighed carefully against the odds.

    It’s obvious – but it’s still important to bear in mind that with sports betting, it’s all about the value rather than the outcomes.